# Smart Watch reality check



## inhaus (Jul 30, 2014)

The personalities in the video aren't the most important point being made here, the point is that even the young trendy tech types are NOT enthused at the idea of the apple watch. This video has 106k views and 98% of the people who have watched it have opted to click the thumbs up/agree button to the video pretty much stating the watch is going to suck...

So here is the real question, if the young trendy tech people think it's going to suck... Aaaaand I know for almost a fact that none of us here are going to drop 4k for the only one that even resembles anything wearable... Where does that leave the smart watch? IMO it leaves it at the bottom of a drawer covered in minidiscs, vhs tapes, and 8-tracks. Or will it be leaving all luxury autos in the dust and obsolete like so many recent threads have suggested?


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## limatime (Jun 26, 2014)

Smart watches are pretty neat but they just aren't there yet. I don't expect a smart watch version of the quartz crisis, at least not anytime soon.


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## EsbenOpen (Dec 20, 2014)

I like the idea of them, there just isn't one that is what I want yet. Maybe eventually they'll make one good enough for me to pick up, but it's gonna be a while.


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## gouverneur (Jun 7, 2012)

I have not been sold on the Apple Watch, either from a functional or aesthetic point of view (I think it's ugly as hell) since its announcement. But time may prove that it has some functionality worth entertaining (perhaps as a right-wrist piece -- my left is already spoken for). I was not a big fan of the iPad when it first came out, either, and I doubt laptop/PC makers were particularly scared of it, but it has completely upended that market.


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## Likestheshiny (Nov 28, 2011)

The "likes" for the video tell us very little. I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that the people who bother finding and watching a video about how the Apple watch might suck are probably already predisposed to be thinking that.

Good, competitive smart watches are inevitable -- that's just a given with shrinking technology. The only question is when it will happen. If it's not this year, it's certainly going to happen at some point in the foreseeable future. But if they do suck now, doesn't that just reinforce the pointlessness of even discussing their suckage? If the tech is immature, folks here shouldn't need the constant validation of reaffirming how immature it is. I can't help but think that some of the desperate "It'll suck so bad" threads I've seen here and elsewhere really just demonstrate the legitimate fear that this product will actually upend the watch industry.


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## bronxbomber252 (Oct 12, 2014)

There will always be a place for mechanical or traditional quartz for me. I cannot take anything that transmits a signal into certain situations at work. Merely turning the feature, or even device off is insufficient. The few guys at work that daily wear bluetooth enabled GPS watches have to lock them up with their cell phones to go into those locations. No thanks, the one actual, 100% practical reason for me to have a watch is to be able to tell time and time things even in those areas.


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## eblackmo (Dec 27, 2014)

I still don't see it as a traditional watch versus smart watch thing. Not yet anyway maybe later. The apple watch is just going to be another big fish in a sea already full of big fish. As pointed out above if people are looking to watch youtube videos on how much apple products suck they probably see the world that way.

Maybe that's better than the alternative though. ;-P


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## inhaus (Jul 30, 2014)

I am personally not interested in spending more than $200 on anything that is going to be obsolete in the future. We are paying for these luxury items for a lifetime of use and that is the ONLY reason I will pay thousands for a watch. No matter how advanced these things get, they will be outdated in a year or two and for that reason alone they will never compete with luxury autos... Also the point about how many people clicked on it based on the title and then clicked like or dislike on the vid is not completely valid, I think many people watch vids that they know they won't agree with and in the case of a watch if I see a title of "breitling SOH sucks," as a fan of the SOH i'm likely going to click on it to see if there is any valid criticism. Even in your scenario which only people who don't like it clicked, you still have 106,000 people who solidly don't like it and that's not insignificant...


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## eblackmo (Dec 27, 2014)

At the moment I don't see smart watches as anything more than a gadget. I'm not a huge apple fan either. I have an ipod and all of my other gadgets  are manufactured by samsung and run android. The main problem I have with apple is the way they lock consumers into their proprietary crap. Anyways neither here nor there.

It's all speculation anyway. Time will tell. Always does. ;-P


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## WorthTheWrist (Jan 1, 2015)

limatime said:


> Smart watches are pretty neat but they just aren't there yet. I don't expect a smart watch version of the quartz crisis, at least not anytime soon.


I agree. Watches are enjoying a turnaround in the smart phone age, where people can simply look at their phone anytime for the time. The same principle is at play with these smart watches IMO. If you want to wear a watch, you are looking for something different than what these and cell phones provide.


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## BarracksSi (Feb 13, 2013)

Going to the other view --

Apple's 10-minute video on YouTube has 660-something "dislikes" and over 6000 "likes".





A shorter vid focusing on health and fitness is at 8,000 "likes" and 571 "dislikes".





What these figures tell me is that the audiences watching these videos are different. Simple "like-dislike" votes aren't going to tell anything worthwhile.


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## BrentYYC (Feb 2, 2012)

Well.... they aren't watches, for a start. They're peripheral devices for your smart phone that just so happen to have a time keeping function added to them, just like your phone.

I can see lots of Apple sheeple who don't wear watches buying them, then discovering they're overhyped and not particularly functional but coming to the realization that having a timepiece on your wrist is very functional and can be an aesthetic personal statement. Then many will start investigating owning a watch. Initially they'll look at the quartz fashion brands, but many will stumble unexpectedly into the world of WISdom and thereby grow the market for quality timepieces.

The luxury watch manufacturers have nothing to worry about.


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## Stellite (Aug 3, 2011)

I would buy the std one as a novelty. But I would not ever think of paying 4k for a crappy wrist computer.


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## alexstraza (Nov 19, 2014)

Let's face it. There's a war on traditional watches. We are under threat. Smart watches are going to erase us from the internet.


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## sleepyhead123 (Jun 2, 2014)

I would think by now no one would underestimate the siren song of the bitten into apple until we see the results. I remember when people were whining about the iPhone 4s, 5, and 6 about how they weren't all that different and the dang things just keep selling out over and over again.

There were people saying the iPad and iPod nano and iPod Touch were pointless and they sold much better than any competitor as well.


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## BarracksSi (Feb 13, 2013)

sleepyhead123 said:


> I would think by now no one would underestimate the siren song of the bitten into apple until we see the results. I remember when people were whining about the iPhone 4s, 5, and 6 about how they weren't all that different and the dang things just keep selling out over and over again.
> 
> There were people saying the iPad and iPod nano and iPod Touch were pointless and they sold much better than any competitor as well.


Also, even the doomsday-for-Apple pundits were pointing to a recent survey that said something like "just 7% of iPhone owners want to buy an Apple Watch," and calling it bad news for Apple, yet not really thinking about the scale of that seven percent. Apple sold _over seventy million iPhones_ last quarter, and more than 40 million in the quarter prior to that. If we count just the past six months' worth of iPhone buyers, that's probably 7 million buyers waiting for the Apple Watch. Remember that the Watch is also compatible back to the iPhone 5 from over two years ago, and it's easy to understand how many of these things Apple can sell.

Between Apple, Samsung, Microsoft, LG, and a few others (Pebble is still in the mix even if they've only sold 400k-ish), the smartwatch is going to sell better than any of us will realize. And yes, they may rekindle interest in regular, low-maintenance wristwatches. Come back to this topic in five years.


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## eblackmo (Dec 27, 2014)

Ipod touch rocks. I remember when mp3 players first came out and I bought a creative player with 256MB of flash for over 300$. Then came the ipod which ruined the competition. I don't see that happening with the iwatch it's not offering anything different to what's been available on the market for years. It's a brand thing like their phones and tablets. It will be interesting to see how it goes.


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## artec (Oct 31, 2006)

I must confess to woeful ignorance but isn't it true that for an Apple watch to offer full performance you have also to have a certain model of i-phone? And, presumably, suitable models of other phones with other models of smart watches? Or can any smart watch function entirely on its own? Or can they all function with any brand of phone?


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## eblackmo (Dec 27, 2014)

artec said:


> I must confess to woeful ignorance but isn't it true that for an Apple watch to offer full performance you have also to have a certain model of i-phone? And, presumably, suitable models of other phones with other models of smart watches? *Or can any smart watch function entirely on its own? Or can they all function with any brand of phone?*


Technically yes. From a business perspective maybe not.


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## Watch Fan in Beijing (Jul 15, 2009)

I still don't get this idea how Rolex, Patek, Omega, etc have something to fear from a 300, 400 dollar piece of wrist technology. That somehow a customer who was planning to buy a Speedmaster or a Sub will decide to dump that and get an Apple watch instead. 

Maybe Seiko's lower end products, Casio, Timex and Fossil have something to fear of the Apple watch. A lot of people who buy those products are one watch persons and due to the relatively low amount they are paying - don't really view watches as expensive jewelry. Those people may consider dumping their cheap quartz watch for an Apple watch as it may have more utility.


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## ari.seoul (Jan 27, 2011)

will smart watches sell, yes, I'm quite sure there'll be a market for them and loads of people will buy them,
if not for the trend, but also its uses,

will they replace standard watches? hardly, 
people will still buy watches - especially the luxury brands, 
smart watches are about trend and tools/apps, luxury watches are about luxury, status, keepsake, heirloom, hobby, collection - this is two different market,

I'll tell you when standard watches may be in trouble,
when smartwatches can transform into a standard watch ...







from this, press the button and presto chang-o, into this:








but even then, there'll be enough people who wants the real thing as oppose to a trend,

luxury watch brands wouldnt worry


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## ari.seoul (Jan 27, 2011)

I thought about this as well,
the regular, lower end watches may be affected ... but I'm pretty sure it wont make too much of a dent, there'll still be market for lower end, regular watches as well,

how can I be sure: How many pair of shoes do we have?

and again, two different 'function':

a 20-something working person may buy/wear a smart watch (for trendy purposes or its function), but the same 20-something person would also buy a regular watch for a more formal event, and if said 20-something person ever gets the watch bug, well ...



Watch Fan in Beijing said:


> I still don't get this idea how Rolex, Patek, Omega, etc have something to fear from a 300, 400 dollar piece of wrist technology. That somehow a customer who was planning to buy a Speedmaster or a Sub will decide to dump that and get an Apple watch instead.
> 
> Maybe Seiko's lower end products, Casio, Timex and Fossil have something to fear of the Apple watch. A lot of people who buy those products are one watch persons and due to the relatively low amount they are paying - don't really view watches as expensive jewelry. Those people may consider dumping their cheap quartz watch for an Apple watch as it may have more utility.


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## alexstraza (Nov 19, 2014)

Wrist real estate will become too valuable. People who wear nice watches will become more of a novelty like guys who drive around classic cars.


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## watchvaultnyc (Jun 5, 2014)

The most obvious answer to OP here is that:

1) Apple Watch is not the only smartwatch out there
2) "Young and trendy crowd" is not necessarily the core market for the smart watch
3) Broad generalizations based on a Youtube videos likes/dislikes where voters are a self-selected set does not make for good market analysis


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## ari.seoul (Jan 27, 2011)

wrist and wrist space may be limited ... but people also have a soul and passion, there will be enough people who will still appreciate the beauty and/or the lure of luxury timepieces,

MP3 player replaces walkman because they both do the same exact thing but the MP3 player does it much, much better,

the smartwatch and the luxury watch (though both have the word 'watch') are hardly in the same market (though some aspect may overlap, like telling time),
but their purpose and appeal is different,
(please dont tell me their sole purpose is just to tell time, if that's your take, then you're really missing the point)

but all this are just conjectures on my part, the best people to answer are the CEO, presidents, etc of both the luxury brands (are they worried about smartwatches) AND the CEO, presidents of smartwatch brands (should luxury watch brand worry about them, are they trying to take their market)


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## BD1 (Jun 30, 2008)

alexstraza said:


> Wrist real estate will become too valuable. People who wear nice watches will become more of a novelty like guys who drive around classic cars.


Exactly. It will be interesting to view this thread in 3-5 years. A lot of comments here remind me of comments before the first iPhone and iPad were released.


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## watchking1 (Jun 12, 2007)

How may new watchmakers do you have your neighborhood?

The future of Smart watches lies in your answer.


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## Lokifish (Nov 8, 2014)

Gadget junkies and fanboys- Newest device is almost always the greatest thing ever, and nothing can be better than that newest gadget. That is until the next gadget comes out, then the previous gadget is garbage and always was garbage. Most of them also can't tell a Rolex or Omega from a $60 Casio most of the time if they can't see the logo.

Once you truly understand this way of thinking the entire mobile market falls into place. So Apple will sell a lot of watches, and many of their adoring fans will ditch their watch for the Apple Watch. Has nothing to do with it being a good product, or that there are already multiple iOS compatible smartwatches already.

All that aside, the Chinese are the biggest threat to the market. Unlike the rest, they are implementing traditional design concepts. Pushing the limits in size, function and HW (and often over reaching). From an engineering aspect, they are a few short steps away from smartwatch "movements" that they can drop into multiple case designs at launch. The only places they need to work on is QC, support and the SW. Think I'm kidding, just look at the Omate X series, particularly the Lutetia/Racer/Roma line. I have watch cases on my bench right now that I could drop the internals into with little effort and have it work well.


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## garublador (Feb 17, 2014)

Watch Fan in Beijing said:


> I still don't get this idea how Rolex, Patek, Omega, etc have something to fear from a 300, 400 dollar piece of wrist technology. That somehow a customer who was planning to buy a Speedmaster or a Sub will decide to dump that and get an Apple watch instead.


I bet it will have some impact. What you said there assumes that the buyer won't see any additional value in the extra features of a smart watch. Right now a luxury watch performs pretty much the same function, and almost equally as well as a cheap watch. That isn't true with a smart watch. It performs many other, valuable functions that even the most expensive watches can't do. Some who would have normally bought the expensive watch will see value in the extra features and buy a smart watch instead. I don't think it will be a very high number, but I also think the luxury watch makers will see it on their bottom line.


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## seikopathic (May 17, 2014)

I've been strictly an Apple fanboi since my first eMac, 12 or 13 years ago. I've been waiting for this iWatch, but was so disappointed that I jumped off the bandwagon and bought an Android phone and watch. My computers are still Apple for now, but I'm done with their gadgets.


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## watchvaultnyc (Jun 5, 2014)

seikopathic said:


> I've been strictly an Apple fanboi since my first eMac, 12 or 13 years ago. I've been waiting for this iWatch, but was so disappointed that I jumped off the bandwagon and bought an Android phone and watch. My computers are still Apple for now, but I'm done with their gadgets.


Interested to know why you were so disappointed


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## Blancpain (Jan 29, 2014)

Reasons to get the Apple Watch






7 million views


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