# Grand Seiko investment?



## DonWerner

So, do you guys think any of the GS models have potential to rise in value in the future? I am thinking about models like the SBGH267 20th Anniversary Limited Edition or any of the other limited edition models?


----------



## hellbentescapement

No watches should be considered investments. Buy them because you love wearing them and don't worry about the rest.


----------



## kanye_mouse

Probably not. they overdo the LE thing.

Don't buy any watch as an investment (as others will likely post), especially not GS.


----------



## valuewatchguy

DonWerner said:


> So, do you guys think any of the GS models have potential to rise in value in the future? I am thinking about models like the SBGH267 20th Anniversary Limited Edition or any of the other limited edition models?


I think the odds are against you. Maybe you pick well but I wouldn't buy as an investment. Maybe as GS continues to raise prices and brand awareness in the USA, that might affect resale. But it's too early to tell.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk


----------



## Friday

DonWerner said:


> So, do you guys think any of the GS models have potential to rise in value in the future? I am thinking about models like the SBGH267 20th Anniversary Limited Edition or any of the other limited edition models?


This is very nice model of GS. I didn't buy it in mint for 4.6k last year. Now it's at least 1k more expensive


----------



## ferrarif1fan

I think there's nothing wrong with attempting to buy a watch as an investment. Lots of Rolex or Omega owners, years down the road, are able to sell their watch for more than they paid for it. I agree that if you like a watch and are willing to spend the money with no intent of it appreciating, then do it. But if you're considering it to be an investment, it is certainly possible to purchase brands/models with a history of appreciating. To me, it's having your cake and eating it too. How many other items can you buy, use for years, then turn around and sell them for more than you originally paid for them.


----------



## venom79

I think you will break even in most cases with limited GS in the medium-long run... very difficult but not imposible to foresee in the future much appreciation because the fan base is not as big if you compare it for example with Rolex, that demand is higher than what is offered. Again buy what you like and use it. Only special case I have seen with big appreciation is the peacock that now is selling 8-7k, and new/preowned was 5-6k some months ago 


Enviado desde mi iPhone utilizando Tapatalk


----------



## valuewatchguy

Friday said:


> This is very nice model of GS. I didn't buy it in mint for 4.6k last year. Now it's at least 1k more expensive


There are exceptions but from casual observation

70% of GS models experience the typical 25-50% depreciation that all entry level luxury watches seem to face.

20% seem to hold value well +/- 15% of original street pricing.

10% of GS models increase in value quite a bit over retail.

Other than hindsight it's hard for me to pick the 10% winners.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk


----------



## 14060

No. Lots of LE GS models.


----------



## venom79

Bought in $5.5k in japan preowned mint last year, now it sells 5.8k +- but have to wait and see if prices are sustainable in the long run just to give you a real example










Enviado desde mi iPhone utilizando Tapatalk


----------



## T1meout

SBGW253 would be the most likely candidate to appreciate in value over time.


----------



## RPF

Unless new GS double in price a la Rolex, it's very unlikely. 

GS are also heavily discounted in Japan, especially second-hand. Demand is low compared to Swiss watches.

Unless the price goes up along with demand, it's a pipe dream. 

Very simple check: Go to Philips, Sothesby or CHristies, and see how many Seikos come up for auction.


----------



## GMT-man

RPF said:


> Very simple check: Go to Philips, Sothesby or CHristies, and see how many Seikos come up for auction.


Maybe because so far people have been buying Grand Seiko watches to keep them because they actually like them. Some brands (Rolex...) seem to attract "investors" and much for that reason the prices have risen due to scarcity so even more people "invest" in them. A self-feeding loop, bound to burst at some point.

Actually I am a bit worried to see threads with this subject line here, I hope this subform does not turn into another Rolex-investment forum with little or noting to do with watches and horology and genuine interest in them.


----------



## ahonobaka

Nothing against OP but I never understood the concept of investment watches. Why not stocks, real estate, hell anything else? Is the couple thousand here and there that fun? Surely a majority of us aren’t affording auction watches at $50-100k where one can throw that kind of money around for fun?


----------



## RPF

GMT-man said:


> Maybe because so far people have been buying Grand Seiko watches to keep them because they actually like them. Some brands (Rolex...) seem to attract "investors" and much for that reason the prices have risen due to scarcity so even more people "invest" in them. A self-feeding loop, bound to burst at some point.
> 
> Actually I am a bit worried to see threads with this subject line here, I hope this subform does not turn into another Rolex-investment forum with little or noting to do with watches and horology and genuine interest in them.


Ten years ago, no one was buying GS outside of Japan. They were unicorns found only in Japan and a few Asian cities. Most of the English speaking world don't know about GS today, much less own one.


----------



## JoeC

DonWerner said:


> So, do you guys think any of the GS models have potential to rise in value in the future?


Nah. Buy a Sub or BLNR/BLRO, if you can find one.


----------



## ferrarif1fan

venom79 said:


> Bought in $5.5k in japan preowned mint last year, now it sells 5.8k +- but have to wait and see if prices are sustainable in the long run just to give you a real example
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Enviado desde mi iPhone utilizando Tapatalk


That is just my favorite GS dial. Wow!


----------



## cuthbert

People who think watches are investments are very wrong, in reality they can appreciate just in the long run, that means decades, unless you use dirty tricks like Rolex who kept on increasing RRP in order to increase the value of used ones.

However GSs limited edition unlike Rolexes are really limited (three digits limited) and I think those who have aesthetic merits (not the plain white dial GS I mean) might hold their value or slightly increase.

For instance my 051 was bought new in 2017 at slightly lower price that is sold now as used one, while GS refused to release the total number of units worldwide I think they are in the 100 range. Can you get more than 100 people in the world interested in this blue dial watch? Then you can expect it will keep its value.


----------



## Nokie

If I considered my investment potential vs my buying habits, I would be living in a van.......down by the river.......


----------



## dayandnight

Buy a GS watch because you plan to wear it and not for investment purposes. I mean you can but there are better options like the others above have mentioned. Ex. Stocks, Gold, Real Estate or even an IRA.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## whineboy

I suspect those seeking affirmation that specific watches are "investments" want it to justify purchases they can't afford. 

If buying a $5K watch that might appreciate to $7K in 5 years influences your decision, you, my friend, should not be buying that watch. Put your money in a 'real' investment like a nice mutual fund or a bond. Craig Shipp has posted quite a few YouTube videos about this. If a gain of a couple of thousand makes a difference, you are out of your league.

Most would say that if you want to profit in watches, go Rolex or Patek. I don't disagree. None of my watches (GSs, Credor, Damasko....) even appear on my net worth calculation worksheet.


----------



## omeglycine

With GS producing so many different LEs, I have wondered just how limited in production various LEs are compared to most of the regular production line.


----------



## ahonobaka

^When you only make 35,000-40,000 watches per year, that in itself is pretty limited.


----------



## omeglycine

ahonobaka said:


> ^When you only make 35,000-40,000 watches per year, that in itself is pretty limited.


Yep, exactly. When you consider the % of production annually that is attributable to LEs, and then allocate the remaining in some way across the rest of the standard production line, I imagine there are some very nice models with very low/limited production numbers.


----------



## obomomomo

What happens when you scratch and/or ding it? If you're thinking of investment returns and value retention it will make you ultra careful wearing it which is not the way to enjoy a watch. Accidents will eventually happen no matter how careful you are unless you're willing to keep it in near brand new state in the box.


----------



## HiggsBoson

I wouldn't buy any watch as an investment. I get too much fun out of wearing them! :-!


----------



## Biguk997

venom79 said:


> Bought in $5.5k in japan preowned mint last year, now it sells 5.8k +- but have to wait and see if prices are sustainable in the long run just to give you a real example
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Enviado desde mi iPhone utilizando Tapatalk


This aged well!


----------



## Imagestreet

SBGX291 and SBGX293. Grand Seiko's 9F answer to the Rolex Milgauss, but sized more like an 39mm Explorer. No date so perfect dial symmetry. Stunning sporty yet sober 70's style case with pronounced lugs, usual Grand Seiko quality, polishing, and lifetime quartz movement accurate to +/- 10sec per year (which can be regulated over time), sealed cabin with estimated 50yr lubricating oil life. Stunning bone/white/silver (SBGX291) and inky black (SBGX293) dials. Now replaced with the SBGX341/343, however these are a different case shape, have a smaller lug to lug length, and IMHO don't look as nice. These two are now discontinued, becoming increasingly hard to find, and rising in price for pre-owned models. In a couple more years when Grand Seiko has built even more of a presence in the US and Europe markets, I reckon these could increasingly be sought after. Full disclosure I own both and they're my favourite GS


----------



## Eswift

venom79 said:


> Bought in $5.5k in japan preowned mint last year, now it sells 5.8k +- but have to wait and see if prices are sustainable in the long run just to give you a real example
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Enviado desde mi iPhone utilizando Tapatalk


Found this thread while awaiting my SBGH267 which I paid 8,500 for and that was BELOW market. Let's GOOOO! This is hands-down the best dial GS has ever released IMO. I think worst case, this watch will be worn "for free" until I sell it (if EVER, i mean look at that dial!)

You still have it? lol


----------



## kritameth

Eswift said:


> Found this thread while awaiting my SBGH267 which I paid 8,500 for and that was BELOW market. Let's GOOOO! This is hands-down the best dial GS has ever released IMO. I think worst case, this watch will be worn "for free" until I sell it (if EVER, i mean look at that dial!)
> 
> You still have it? lol


While I don't personally get the hype, I could see this one keep skyrocketing.


----------



## venom79

Eswift said:


> Found this thread while awaiting my SBGH267 which I paid 8,500 for and that was BELOW market. Let's GOOOO! This is hands-down the best dial GS has ever released IMO. I think worst case, this watch will be worn "for free" until I sell it (if EVER, i mean look at that dial!)
> 
> You still have it? lol


Of course, I don't plan on selling it any time soon. I love this watch and it's half brother the sbgr311... I have not look the current prices but nice to see the upward trend, would be happy if it only had maintained its original msrp, but great

Enviado desde mi iPhone utilizando Tapatalk


----------



## Ard

You are assuming that someday the price will escalate to the extent that you will be motivated to sell a watch at a profit. If both those things happen in your life then yes it is possible.

Generally when people look to sell items there is a reason for liquidation (item to cash) and depending on the urgency driving a liquidation you may lose. The safest thing to keep for the future is actual cash or precious metals not wrist watches.


----------



## Ced Craig

Have the potential to rise in the future? Probably, but I'm with others who recommend not to buy a watch for „investment."



valuewatchguy said:


> There are exceptions but from casual observation
> 70% of GS models experience the typical 25-50% depreciation that all entry level luxury watches seem to face.
> 20% seem to hold value well +/- 15% of original street pricing.
> 10% of GS models increase in value quite a bit over retail.
> Other than hindsight it's hard for me to pick the 10% winners.


So far 100% of the multiple GS models I've looked at on Chrono24 fall into the 30% that hold their value or increase in value. When I see a model I like a lot I immediately look at Chrono24 and so far have been 100% let down, with not a single model at a price where I'd pull the trigger.


----------



## valuewatchguy

Ced Craig said:


> Have the potential to rise in the future? Probably, but I'm with others who recommend not to buy a watch for „investment."
> 
> So far 100% of the multiple GS models I've looked at on Chrono24 fall into the 30% that hold their value or increase in value. When I see a model I like a lot I immediately look at Chrono24 and so far have been 100% let down, with not a single model at a price where I'd pull the trigger.


dont buy the popular models.


----------



## sigma812

I don't buy a watch as an investment, but I do consider value retention much like I do buying a car. I won't buy a watch only for resale potential though - the vast majority are terrible 'investments' even those that hold value or even appreciate some. I must like it first, then second I consider value retention. There are watches I like that I won't buy new because they don't hold value (most Speedmaster, for example). GS is tricky - the 'safe' buys don't really appreciate much but tend to just hold their value. Most GS (and Rolex) are terrible 'investments' generally. I have an SBGH269 and an Eagle on the way and expect both to generally hold their value but not appreciate much. I bought a Rolex BLNR new at list in 2015 and it is up maybe 75% in the 5 years since then - terrible performance compared to good stocks over that period. I wear all my watches. Pick the best of the breed which are LEs in the GS world. GS has set a trap with LEs - I've learned to wait for an LE if I'm looking at a particular series. 

I do think there are some watches that can be true, good investments, but those are outside my price range. I'm talking pieces with true provenance like Newman Daytonas, etc. But those are like buying high end artwork - each piece is unique and in a different world than a case GS, Rolex, AP, VC, JLC, etc.


----------



## Eswift

Ard said:


> You are assuming that someday the price will escalate to the extent that you will be motivated to sell a watch at a profit. If both those things happen in your life then yes it is possible.
> 
> Generally when people look to sell items there is a reason for liquidation (item to cash) and depending on the urgency driving a liquidation you may lose. The safest thing to keep for the future is actual cash or precious metals not wrist watches.


To be clear. This could end up being worth 1/3 of what i paid and i'd just wear it forever... that being said. With GS expanding into North American aggressively, being one of the nicest dials on a watch (ever), and the actual scarcity (not like MILLIONS OF ROLEXES IN SAFES lol). I see this stabilizing and at the very least holding value. Either way, i'm happy with it on my wrist.

This is coming from someone who FLAT OUT REFUSES to pay a market up price on an OP or DJ (which ARE NOT rare, like at all). The buzz for this model seems to stay strong, every time someone drops a wrist shot. Best thing that we can do owning 1 of 1500 watches, is to spam wrist shots as much as possible on social media. LMAO


----------



## Eswift

sigma812 said:


> I don't buy a watch as an investment, but I do consider value retention much like I do buying a car. I won't buy a watch only for resale potential though - the vast majority are terrible 'investments' even those that hold value or even appreciate some. I must like it first, then second I consider value retention. There are watches I like that I won't buy new because they don't hold value (most Speedmaster, for example). GS is tricky - the 'safe' buys don't really appreciate much but tend to just hold their value. Most GS (and Rolex) are terrible 'investments' generally. I have an SBGH269 and an Eagle on the way and expect both to generally hold their value but not appreciate much. I bought a Rolex BLNR new at list in 2015 and it is up maybe 75% in the 5 years since then - terrible performance compared to good stocks over that period. I wear all my watches. Pick the best of the breed which are LEs in the GS world. GS has set a trap with LEs - I've learned to wait for an LE if I'm looking at a particular series.
> 
> I do think there are some watches that can be true, good investments, but those are outside my price range. I'm talking pieces with true provenance like Newman Daytonas, etc. But those are like buying high end artwork - each piece is unique and in a different world than a case GS, Rolex, AP, VC, JLC, etc.


SBGH269 .... _heavy breathing noises_

If one of those had popped up at the same time it would've been a tough decision.


----------



## SolarPower

It is if you consider investing your money in a pleasure to wear the watch a worthy investment. Otherwise invest where you believe the money is well spent.


----------



## AnGeLiCbOrIs

This thread has aged well! I'm hanging onto my SBGA387, SBGJ227, SBGH269 and SBGE263 as wearable investments. My favorite Grand Seikos to wear (and I've tried almost all of them) are the SBGJ217 and SBGP015. The SBGP015 is a true undiscovered gem.


----------



## CydeWeys

Eswift said:


> Found this thread while awaiting my SBGH267 which I paid 8,500 for and that was BELOW market. Let's GOOOO! This is hands-down the best dial GS has ever released IMO. I think worst case, this watch will be worn "for free" until I sell it (if EVER, i mean look at that dial!)
> 
> You still have it? lol


Yeah, this watch is absolutely beautiful, and I wish I had it. This is one of the very, very few GS watches that have convincingly increased in value (enough to rival the stock market, which should always be your opportunity cost when considering investment value). Another one would be SBGA421, the red snowflake.

The problem is that for every GS watch that is undeniably a good investment, there are dozens that aren't. And there's no way to know ahead of time! Buying a GS as an investment is like trying to make money by picking stocks when the average stock is a loser. It's easy to say with hindsight "I should've bought SBGH267/steel Rolexes/GME/Bitcoin when they were cheaper", but much harder to, at the time, have the foresight to know it's gonna go up.

Just knowing that the average watch tends to lose value, and that I definitely don't have a sure taste in determining what will go up significantly over time, is enough to ensure that I never treat watches as investments, and only ever as expensive consumer goods.


----------



## LDN101

DonWerner said:


> So, do you guys think any of the GS models have potential to rise in value in the future? I am thinking about models like the SBGH267 20th Anniversary Limited Edition or any of the other limited edition models?


My own thoughts entirely. I suspect not, although would wish to the contrary as they are admirable pieces that might surge in collectability in future as a Ford of the watch world.


----------



## LDN101

hellbentescapement said:


> No watches should be considered investments. Buy them because you love wearing them and don't worry about the rest.


Laudable, if quaintly misconceived in a world where sneakers are collectable and can fetch thousands of dollars at auction. An application of the same collectability principles of classic cars, paintings, and even sneakers and handbags should be applied. 1. Desirability. 2. Availability. 3. Quality. 4. Maintenance costs. Apply these principles to avoid costly mistaken investments.


----------



## RedSilver

I think if you pick up some of the older Seiko Grand Seikos they may eventually go up if you hold on to it long enough.


----------



## LDN101

RedSilver said:


> I think if you pick up some of the older Seiko Grand Seikos they may eventually go up if you hold on to it long enough.


They certainly have the potential, but it will require an increase of the desirability factor. Flying under the radar is great for those watch aficionados who are " in the know" but it will require a broader market appeal to drive up prices. Rolex have advertised and "placed" consistently over many years to achieve the Rolex value proposition. Omega have copied, but not as yet succeeded. On one hand I'd like to see a recognition of the GS value proposition, on the other I treasure it's secrecy.


----------



## yosukesan

4520-8020 might be the one to go if you want to invest GS. I would rather go for SP500 though. 

Unlike Swiss power houses, Seiko produces watches for mass market too. They may increase the production of GS easily if they experience current Rolex like situation.


----------



## Pongster

Investment? Better to buy shares of Seiko Holdings Corp in the Tokyo Stock Exchange.


----------



## MickCollins1916

No idea, but I'm not holding my breath on that. I'm enjoying the ones I have.


----------



## TheResident

Please don't buy GS as an investment, let's leave that to the Rolex, PP world....


----------



## superultramega

venom79 said:


> Bought in $5.5k in japan preowned mint last year, now it sells 5.8k +- but have to wait and see if prices are sustainable in the long run just to give you a real example
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Enviado desde mi iPhone utilizando Tapatalk



Ha, but now this one sells for twice the price.


----------

