# Apple smart watch sales plummet.



## T1meout

Recent market analysis shows Apple watche sales have plummeted by over 50% over the last quarter compared to last year's figures. With 47% of market shares, Apple is still the market leader, but there is obviously less interest in smart watches in general. So much for the predicted demise of regular watch manufacturers. We all know that watch conglomerates across the board have announced reduced sales over 2016, but apparently this can't be attributed to the recent introduction of smartwatches.


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## BarracksSi

Source?


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## BarracksSi

And a rebuttal: 
Wristly confirms 94% Apple Watch customers are 'satisfied' | Computerworld

Computer World's source:
https://medium.com/wristly-thoughts...et-not-recommending-it-9e400836310#.8csteczc2

One thought: AW owners are self-targeting, being comfortable with wearing watches and with the idea of a do-many-things-but-not-everything accessory device.


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## T1meout

Here's your source. Researched by a real market analyst, not some tech gadget magazine.
Worldwide Smartwatch Market Experiences Its First Decline as Shipments Fall 32% in the Second Quarter of 2016, According to IDC - prUS41611516


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## oak1971

Apple cult members will never accept any bad news. 

Sent from my Macpro


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## nevada1995

I can believe that, I want a smart watch but I'm waiting for more practical features in a more traditional design. I actually thought the Tag smart watch was close but a little too much. I think a Seiko smart watch diver style would be perfect. Apple really was kind of a miss for me, the Samsung was too techie for me.


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## oak1971

I will get a smart watch when it can project a usable sized screen. I don't even like using my phone for anything but talking.


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## Crate410

oak1971 said:


> I will get a smart watch when it can project a usable sized screen.


Seriously. I bought an apple watch a few months back. Used it for 2 days. 3rd day it stayed home. 4th day it was on a local classifieds site, 5th day it was gone.

Such a small pointless screen.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## BarracksSi

Does the fact that a five-inch screen is a terrible multitrack audio editing platform prevent you from buying a smartphone, too?


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## oak1971

BarracksSi said:


> Does the fact that a five-inch screen is a terrible multitrack audio editing platform prevent you from buying a smartphone, too?


I have a smartphone, I only use it for non phone activities when my macpro is not nearby. I like a real keyboard too.


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## BarracksSi

oak1971 said:


> I have a smartphone, I only use it for non phone activities when my macpro is not nearby. I like a real keyboard too.


So, the right tool for the right task, then.


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## ike773

I must admit you can get used to the conveniences the apple watch provides, such as text notifications, quickly checking your email, weather forecasts, traffic updates, etc. without pulling your phone out of your pocket. It also looks surprisingly nice with a dress shirt. To some people is it worth the money? I'd say yes.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## CdnCarat

It saves me all the couples seconds of pulling my phone out of my pocket. I find it annoying that it turns into a paperweight if not synced to your phone. I wear it periodically only because it was a gift (and for the health tracker app). Hate having to charge it everyday...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## mharris660

arguing with Apple fan boys is like treating athletes foot. It's going to itch really bad and take a long time to go away.


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## LivingTheDream

As much as I like apple products such as the iPad, I saw the apple watch as fad, and predicted it to behave like all fads. Sure, there are millions of people that will buy virtually anything apple releases, but at the end of the day their watch serves more fad than function.


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## Mot524

ike773 said:


> I must admit you can get used to the conveniences the apple watch provides, such as text notifications, quickly checking your email, weather forecasts, traffic updates, etc. without pulling your phone out of your pocket. It also looks surprisingly nice with a dress shirt. To some people is it worth the money? I'd say yes.


Meh. I don't have a smartwatch but I hang out with a few people who do. I find these watches to be extremely annoying. My friends glance at their watches every couple minutes because of the notifications. Even if they decide not to answer a text or whatever, they're still being distracted and (IMO) somewhat disrespectful. Actually, even if the watch owners don't interact with the watches at all, the watches are still annoying because the screen flashes on and off. If I wore a bracelet with an LED that flashed at random times, everybody would find that pretty annoying, but I guess it's supposed to be totally acceptable if it's a smartwatch. I guess you have to balance the convenience of a smartwatch to yourself vs. how annoying you want to be to other people.


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## pr1uk

I think even Apple have admitted the sales have dropped off even after large (for Apple at least) discounts they must be hoping for a large sale of version 2 probably in September this year I am not so sure I only know one person with one and he is trying to sell it so he for one will not be buying another version whatever they add. If I was still working and not retired I would have got one as I buy anything Apple it's my brand of taste so if things had been different I would have had one sitting on it's charger most of the time so glad I am retired and could not afford one, bit of luck on my part.


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## yankeexpress

Smart buyers on the sidelines waiting for the new version to become available. Happens all the time, cyclic buying patterns.

Apple haters posting clickbait BS propaganda.


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## T1meout

yankeexpress said:


> Smart buyers on the sidelines waiting for the new version to become available. Happens all the time, cyclic buying patterns.
> 
> Apple haters posting clickbait BS propaganda.


On the bright side, all those gold models no one bought can at least be converted back into bullion.


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## scentedlead

T1meout said:


> On the bright side, all those gold models no one bought can at least be converted back into bullion.


Considering that only Apple stores carried them-and only a select few Apple stores-probably not many were made. While you frequently saw sales on the AW Sport, sales for the regular AW were far and few in between, and I have never seen a sale on the AW Edition. Long before he even became CEO, Tim Cook has been very good at keeping excess inventory to a minimum and if Apple can't meet exact demand, the AW Edition is something Apple would rather err on the side of under-producing.

Editing to add: "Sales" prices of refurbished models don't count.


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## jwk7443

Not surprised at all, why would I want an additional device that I have to recharge. Plus, my iphone does everything better...


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## Soju Soldier

My first smartwatch was the original Pebble and I enjoyed it for what it was. I then decided to get an Apple Watch and I also enjoy that one. I mainly like it over the Pebble because I can dictate my replies to messages and if I want to feel like Dick Tracy, answer my phone (when around friends, not strangers). Yesterday I purchased a Fenix 3 HR for the golf app. Won't get it until Monday but I am hoping it is the best of all smartwatch worlds. Time will tell. 

A previous comment does nail the problem on the head, you have to charge several devices and not just your phone, which to me is why the watches get used for a few days and then stay on their charging stations most of the time.


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## scentedlead

Apple Watch supplies run low ahead of September event



> You'll find a lot of Watch variants marked as "Sold Out" if you browse Apple's online store, _9to5mac_ has discovered. And, yes, the list includes ones with brightly colored bands Cupertino launched just a few months ago. While there could be a different explanation, it sure seems to support rumors that the company is revealing its next-gen Watch very soon, possibly during its September event. Apple usually slashes a product's supplies when it's about to launch a refresh, but it's not always this conspicuous.
> 
> . . .
> 
> _9to5mac_ has a pretty comprehensive list of Watch variants marked as Sold Out. But you can head over to Apple's website and click around on your own to find that even those marked as "New" aren't available anymore. You'll also see that each category -- Sports, Stainless Steel, Hermes and Edition -- has several Sold Out listings.


If it's sold out, then yeah of course sales numbers are going to drop.

For Apple watchers, this is nothing new. iPhone sales drop right about now from a combo of retailers being sold out and lack of interest in current and old models due to upcoming product announcements. A better indicator of interest is to see how the holiday quarter numbers turn out.

I still am skeptical of rumors of a new Apple Watch as there has been nothing from supplier leaks which is very unusual. That said, I wouldn't count out new colors for straps and cases, and maybe even a new operating system.



Soju Soldier said:


> My first smartwatch was the original Pebble and I enjoyed it for what it was. I then decided to get an Apple Watch and I also enjoy that one. I mainly like it over the Pebble because I can dictate my replies to messages and if I want to feel like Dick Tracy, answer my phone (when around friends, not strangers). Yesterday I purchased a Fenix 3 HR for the golf app. Won't get it until Monday but I am hoping it is the best of all smartwatch worlds. Time will tell.
> 
> A previous comment does nail the problem on the head, you have to charge several devices and not just your phone, which to me is why the watches get used for a few days and then stay on their charging stations most of the time.


With iPhones and Macbooks, I get a new one and so I sell the old one. Not so with iPads and I think ditto for the AW and charging is a big reason why I won't sell my old AW.

Charging is no problem. The watch is either on my wrist or-when I'm doing the dishes or taking a shower-on its charger; it is never just lying about and doing nothing. But, there are days when I'm in the car all day long and between Maps and Pandora, a watch that's fully charged at 8 a.m. is going to die between 8 p.m. to 10 p.m. It would be nice to have a watch to wear during the night and then have another one fully charged and ready to go in the morning.

(Also, I turn off "Activate on Wrist Raise" at bedtime and turn it back on as I head out the door. It would be nice to not have to worry about this.)


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## FrankFlapjack

T1meout said:


> Recent market analysis shows Apple watche sales have plummeted by over 50% over the last quarter compared to last year's figures. With 47% of market shares, Apple is still the market leader, but there is obviously less interest in smart watches in general. So much for the predicted demise of regular watch manufacturers. We all know that watch conglomerates across the board have announced reduced sales over 2016, but apparently this can't be attributed to the recent introduction of smartwatches.


Typical drop off led by expectations of a refreshed AW2 this fall. This more or less happens with every Apple product - why pay full price for old technology when you can get more/newer tech, for the same price, just by waiting a few months?

Frank


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## config

I think releasing an 18K gold Apple Watch was one of the dumbest thing ever.


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## scentedlead

config said:


> I think releasing an 18K gold Apple Watch was one of the dumbest thing ever.


If it makes you feel better, only a few were made and only a few Apple stores carried them. As for the 18k watch with the 18k bracelet, Apple never sold those-those were giveaways to only A-list celebrities.


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## Buhma55c

My wife's friend has the Apple watch when it first came out.... Now it's just thrown on her night stand gathering dust.
My wife had the Samsung S2 watch... and she replaced it with the Fitbit Alta. Apparently most people feel the same....

http://www.macrumors.com/2016/09/06/apple-watch-losing-ground-fitbit/

http://www.techtimes.com/articles/1...wearable-tech-market-outsells-apple-watch.htm

http://www.wareable.com/apple-watch/fitbit-top-seller-wearable-tech-1593

http://www.pymnts.com/news/mobile-commerce/2016/fitbit-outsells-apple-watch-on-amazon/

I find it interesting that a small company is killing the giant of Apple..... Kinda like what Apple did to Microsoft.... The king is dead.... Long live the new king.


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## Buhma55c

New Apple watch announced today... Another meh...IMHO

The updates make the watch more comparable to the activity trackers from.Fitbit.(FIT), but are not enough to overtake Fitbit,.True Ventures.venture partner Om Malik said on.BloombergTV's"Bloomberg Markets" Wednesday afternoon..

In order to dominate the activity tracker sector, Apple needs to stop trying to do so much with its.smartwatch, he.added.

"I would say that Fitbit has proved time and time again that focused, dedicated products are more in demand in the market right now. Apple Watch suffers from a little bit of confusion, or 'personality disorder' as I would like to call it. Until they figure that out, Fitbit has a clear lead and will maintain a clear lead," Malik asserted..

In addition, more focused designs like Fitbit's give trackers a longer shelf life.



Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk


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## Mot524

Buhma55c said:


> New Apple watch announced today... Another meh...IMHO
> 
> The updates make the watch more comparable to the activity trackers from.Fitbit.(FIT), but are not enough to overtake Fitbit,.True Ventures.venture partner Om Malik said on.BloombergTV's"Bloomberg Markets" Wednesday afternoon..
> 
> In order to dominate the activity tracker sector, Apple needs to stop trying to do so much with its.smartwatch, he.added.
> 
> "I would say that Fitbit has proved time and time again that focused, dedicated products are more in demand in the market right now. Apple Watch suffers from a little bit of confusion, or 'personality disorder' as I would like to call it. Until they figure that out, Fitbit has a clear lead and will maintain a clear lead," Malik asserted..
> 
> In addition, more focused designs like Fitbit's give trackers a longer shelf life.
> ...


I'm not jazzed about the Apple Watch but this analysis is kind of ridiculous.

The idea that Apple's goal is to overtake Fitbit somehow is nonsensical. They're already selling 80% as many devices as Fitbit and those devices are massively more profitable. There's no reason for Apple to give one s*** about Fitbit. Suggesting that Apple emulate Fitbit's business model or strategies is sort of like saying Michael Phelps should try to swim like... well, anybody else.


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## Buhma55c

Let me get this straight.... When Apple sells 80% of smart watches it's a hit....and when Apple sells only 20% of all wearables... it's still a hit..... And when Apple only sold 1% compared to all watches including quartz and autos.... it's a hit. When Apple is losing 57% year over year in sales and is propped up by the iPhone, not the watch, it's still a hit!

OK gotcha....Apple is the best forevah!

Oh another thing...Apple is trying so hard to add all these 'health' apps....why? It's not like Fitbit model isn't important.... I mean Apple watch can send heartbeats to your friend... Isn't that better than all these fitness .... that Series 2 now advertises as the killer app..... but don't compare it to the lowly fitbit....hahahahaha


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## Buhma55c

Your Michael Phelps comparison is ridiculous! Fitbit is great at ONE THING! Apple watch tries to be good at everything. 

Phelps is a great olympic swimmer... So that makes him able to beat Bolt in the 100m right? Right? 😂


So Fitbit is to Michael Phelps as Apple watch is to your average cross trainer....


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## BarracksSi

Hang on&#8230;

If there is such a figure as Apple selling 1% of all watches and wearables&#8230;

How many companies are selling watches and wearables again? Way more than a hundred, right? How many of them would love to boost their market share to 1%?

Let's play with another number&#8230;

The AW is compatible back to the iPhone 5.

iPhone 5/5C/5S sales topped a hundred million, according to this site:
http://www.statisticbrain.com/iphone-5-sales-statistics/

The iPhone 6/6S/6+/6S+ has been selling even better, probably 100-150 million by now (I'll look again when I get home).

Let's say that just one percent of owners with compatible iPhones buy an AW.

That's around twenty million.

How many watch brands have sold twenty million watches in a year and a half? Pretty short list, isn't it?


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## yankeexpress

The only watchmaker that makes more profit on watches is Rolex and Apple is catching them.


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## Buhma55c

I said of ALL WATCHES...including the cheapo quartz sold at Walmart.

Apple fanboys sure like to make mountains out of molehills. You are like the Christian apologists...keep moving the goal posts to fit your narrative.

Facts are facts...Apple watch is a dud. Sure it is the best of the smart watches... But its a big fish in a little pond....

I said this a year ago and took a break from Apple innanity for a year...looks like I was proven right...and no matter how you try to justify your own purchase of Apple watch....the rest of the populous does not agree with you.

I couldn't care less how many of you have open mouth kisses with your watch in a warm prison shower....I don't find the new watch compelling to purchase.... I'm not the only one.


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## Buhma55c

Traditional watches sold per year 1.2 Billion 
.Apple watches sold per year 12 million. (2015)
That makes it .01% so I was being generous at 1%


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## Buhma55c

Did Mot24 say you shouldn't compare a $500 Apple watch to a $150 Fitbit.... yet Apple fan boys compare the watch to a $10000 Rolex....ohhhhh k....


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## Maljunulo

I don't care for smartwatches, and will never buy one, but I don't wish them ill.


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## Maljunulo

Buhma55c said:


> Traditional watches sold per year 1.2 Billion
> .Apple watches sold per year 12 million. (2015)
> That makes it .01% so I was being generous at 1%


It depends on whether you are using a UK billion (10^12) or a US billion (10^9).


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## Buhma55c

I'm out... Be back in another year see how the Apple watch S2 is doing. ✌


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## BarracksSi

Buhma55c said:


> I'm out... Be back in another year see how the Apple watch S2 is doing. ✌


Ok.

Should be past 30-40million or so, if this one is to be believed. We'll see if their stats hold up:
Apple Watch Sales Statistics - Statistic Brain


> Total number of Apple Watches sold18,250,000 


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## Mot524

Buhma55c said:


> Let me get this straight.... When Apple sells 80% of smart watches it's a hit....and when Apple sells only 20% of all wearables... it's still a hit..... And when Apple only sold 1% compared to all watches including quartz and autos.... it's a hit. When Apple is losing 57% year over year in sales and is propped up by the iPhone, not the watch, it's still a hit!
> 
> OK gotcha....Apple is the best forevah!
> 
> Oh another thing...Apple is trying so hard to add all these 'health' apps....why? It's not like Fitbit model isn't important.... I mean Apple watch can send heartbeats to your friend... Isn't that better than all these fitness .... that Series 2 now advertises as the killer app..... but don't compare it to the lowly fitbit....hahahahaha


Whoa boy. I don't know if you forgot your meds or what, but you gotta calm down man.

First of all, I started out by saying I'm not jazzed about the Apple Watch. I'm not a fanboy. I'm not trying to argue that it's a hit. I'm not saying it's better than the Fitbit. I'm not saying its sales are increasing. I'm not saying anything about Apple in general.

All that s*** is stuff you came up with. I don't know who you're arguing with, but it's not me.

Anyway, I will stand by my original statement, i.e., that Apple doesn't need to change anything about their strategy to "catch up" to Fitbit since they're _*not behind*_ Fitbit. They have more or less the same number of sales (within a factor of 2) and they're making dramatically more profit.

Okay, nobody liked my Michael Phelps analogy. Here's another attempt. This would be like saying that Rolls Royce needs to retarget their cars to better compete with bicycles, since bicycles sell better than Rolls Royces and offer a number of key advantages (lighter weight, more places to park, etc.).


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## Buhma55c

BarracksSi said:


> Ok.
> 
> Should be past 30-40million or so, if this one is to be believed. We'll see if their stats hold up:
> Apple Watch Sales Statistics - Statistic Brain


You do know I was speaking Per Year ?

By your math then traditional watches will be at 2.4 billion. And didn't you say last year that Apple watch will sell 50 million by the end of 2015?

But facts are facts.... And u well... that's just your opinion,man.... ?


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## BarracksSi

Buhma55c said:


> And didn't you say last year that Apple watch will sell 50 million by the end of 2015?
> 
> But facts are facts.... And u well... that's just your opinion,man....


I did? Eh, maybe I did (and I appreciate the effort you must have made in searching for my old posts -- glad I'm so important to your life).

I think I was guessing 5% ownership when the pundits were grousing about "only 30% of iPhone owners are interested in the AW". I still don't think they understood how many iPhone owners are out there.


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## LivingTheDream

Saw the news on the new model, and it will be an easy decision to not purchase one. More things I simply don't need, and won't ever need. 

Perhaps I would consider IF they released a solar version that never needed charging and projected a 3D image of a person I was taking a call would I consider.

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk


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## Buhma55c

Of course they have to say that....sales numbers prove that most people do not want it. (Like Apple TV)


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## oak1971

If the new business model is to slowly trickle out tech, it will be a while before I buy any more apple devices.


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## Buhma55c

Although Apple watch is king in the smart watch department... it's failure in general is due to no one wanting even the new one.


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## Canuck Doc

Does the Samsung have ant+?


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## Canuck Doc

Honestly, if the Apple Watch had ant+ I would already own one, as I have a lot invested in that (power meter included). I'm still stuck with garmin though...


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## Buhma55c

Oh really? 30 million or so eh? Sales so far not looking so good.


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## scentedlead

*shrugs*

iPhone sales drop every summer by tens of millions of units compared to the holiday quarter. Everyone knows new models are announced in September and people save up to buy a new one during the holiday quarter. Likewise, the new Series 2 watch was announced and released in September—just like the iPhones.

Let’s see how sales do in the holiday quarter. That said, the Series 2 did sell out within hours, both in online presales and in-store on launch day. I’m not worried yet.


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## scentedlead

double post.


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## eljay

scentedlead said:


> *shrugs*
> 
> iPhone sales drop every summer by tens of millions of units compared to the holiday quarter. Everyone knows new models are announced in September and people save up to buy a new one during the holiday quarter. Likewise, the new Series 2 watch was announced and released in September-just like the iPhones.
> 
> Let's see how sales do in the holiday quarter. That said, the Series 2 did sell out within hours, both in online presales and in-store on launch day. I'm not worried yet.


This is year on year, i.e. measuring a quarter's performance against the same quarter 12 months ago, to eliminate seasonal effects. It remains to be seen how the AW2 has or will affect these measures.

Do you hold Apple stock? That's about the only reason I can think of for Apple's sales figures to be a source of worry...


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## mharris660

This is how I see it, if Apple made an iTurd someone would say it's the greatest turd ever.


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## eljay

mharris660 said:


> This is how I see it, if Apple made an iTurd someone would say it's the greatest turd ever.


Imagine if Apple partnered with BMW on the turd!


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## mharris660

A team made for each other, Apple and BMW


eljay said:


> Imagine if Apple partnered with BMW on the turd!


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## Buhma55c




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## scentedlead

Says John Gruber at DaringFireball.com reacting to Tim Cook's hints that Apple Watch sales to consumers set record in holiday week:



> Comparing Apple Watch sales in the third calendar quarter this year to last year is not meaningful. Last year the Apple Watch was still a brand-new product in July-September, drawing sales from early adopters. And remember that Apple Watch was extremely supply-constrained when it hit the market in May 2015. Many models were back-ordered for 6-8 weeks. This year, Apple Watch was a year-old product in those months, with many would-be purchasers correctly predicting that Apple would introduce new models in September.
> 
> Common sense suggests that the Apple Watch sales cycle is going to look a lot like the iPod's - with truly humongous spikes in the holiday quarter. That's when the new models come out, and it's a natural gift.


I'm gonna add that it's not just iPods but also iPhones that follow this pattern-and now Apple Watches. New models are announced at the end of the third quarter, everyone wants the new one in the fourth quarter. So, of course sales dropped in the third quarter with the announcements of new models expected at the end of the third quarter. Who buys a product near the its retail end of life? Especially when you can wait a few weeks and get the new model? Anyways, you put together the newness of the new model plus Christmas, and that means explosive fourth quarter sales.

Apple Watches are already holding their own against other similarly featured smartwatches; let's see how they do after all is said and done after Christmas.

If you're screaming that AW sales dropped in the third quarter, you might looking at the right numbers, but you're ignoring the context of the numbers and you're ignoring the why of the numbers. And that means you see less of where the numbers could go.


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## Buhma55c

Series 2 watches were already out by 3rd quarter.


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## Buhma55c

Interesting how 'Fitbit is in trouble' because it only grew sales by 5.1% from last year....yet Apple is doing 'FANTASTIC' by losing 71%.


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## Buhma55c

The content of Cook's statement seems positive for investors, leading to headlines with some combination of the words "record" and "Apple Watch sales," but is part of a pattern of vague details about the only product category introduced since Cook took the helm at Apple from Steve Jobs five years ago. For long-term investors, this is a concern: Sales trends that matter in the long run are being sugarcoated for short-term gain.










Long-term investors should take these Cook emails with a grain of salt. Longer-term trends are much more an indication of how a product category is performing. IDC even made note of this in its report on Apple Watch shipments earlier this week, saying Apple's success "will likely be muted as the smartwatch category continues to be challenged," even though Apple Watch may benefit in the near term from Black Friday promotions and people gifting devices for the holidays.


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## wydim

I'm an android fan and not really drawn to any smartwatch myself. But I just ordered the AW series 2 for my girlfriend and I'll tell you why I think it's a good match for her.

She's already in the iOS ecosystem (iphone, ipad)
she's a casual runner, a good swimmer, we often ride bikes with the baby in the back, and I recently (2 years ago) got her hyped for triathlons (she's done 2 already).

before Apple introduced the GPS and water resistance in the AW, it didn't make sense to just have another screen for notifications, sms, and whatnot. But now, she'll have a more useful device for recording and keeping track of her workouts (previously, she used the Iphone strapped on her arm for running and that's it. No rides or swim recording).

pair it with Bluetooth headphones during her runs and she'll be very happy to ditch the Iphone.

Last year, I had thought about buying her a real training watch (Garmin or Suunto) and I literally asked her if she would like to have one like me (Suunto Ambit). And she said it would look ridiculous on her skinny wrists (during sports or everyday use). So now, she'll have a smaller, thinner smartwatch, fitness and sports tracker and fashion statement, all in one !

Now with this in mind, please tell me what would have been my other good options ?


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## scentedlead

Buhma55c said:


> Series 2 watches were already out by 3rd quarter.


Series 2 was released on Sept. 16. That gives it only 2 weeks of sales in the 3rd calendar quarter.



Buhma55c said:


> Interesting how 'Fitbit is in trouble' because it only grew sales by 5.1% from last year....yet Apple is doing 'FANTASTIC' by losing 71%.


People aren't saying Apple is doing fantastic with the AW losing 71%. They're saying that-just like iPod and iPhone sales drop until a huge spike in the holiday quarter-let's wait and see. Apple products dropping sales during the calendar year and until a huge spike in the holiday quarter are trends that have been noticed for years and many people have been expecting AW sales patterns to ebb and flow in patterns similar to iPhone sales.



Buhma55c said:


> The content of Cook's statement seems positive for investors, leading to headlines with some combination of the words "record" and "Apple Watch sales," but is part of a pattern of vague details about the only product category introduced since Cook took the helm at Apple from Steve Jobs five years ago. For long-term investors, this is a concern: Sales trends that matter in the long run are being sugarcoated for short-term gain.
> 
> Long-term investors should take these Cook emails with a grain of salt. Longer-term trends are much more an indication of how a product category is performing. IDC even made note of this in its report on Apple Watch shipments earlier this week, saying Apple's success "will likely be muted as the smartwatch category continues to be challenged," even though Apple Watch may benefit in the near term from Black Friday promotions and people gifting devices for the holidays.


Even if Apple doesn't release numbers, there are still ways to estimate those numbers-manufactured, shipped, and sold-with leaks from suppliers, distributors, and vendors. Apple is the most watched company, and despite Cook's attempts, those numbers will leak out. The reason Apple doesn't release sales numbers is because it has learned from the iPhone-bragging about how well the iPhone was doing clued other competitors in to how large the smartphone market was and made them want a piece of that.

Take what with a grain of salt? Apple has a record of downplaying lots of things-including sales and revenue-before earnings calls. Cook is a very understated guy and this break from his usual self is why people are perking up.

Anyways, this is what IDC said two days ago:



> Fitbit was once again the market leader in 3Q16 as the vendor released a long awaited refresh for the Charge HR with the Charge 2. Despite recent negativity surrounding the company's long-term strategy and stock price, IDC expects Fitbit to continue leading the pack in the near term. The acquisition of Coin and the potential to expand into the smartwatch category present an opportunity for the company to be more than just a fitness brand.





> Apple's decision to launch its second-generation watches in mid-September, towards the end of the quarter, did contribute to its year-over-year decline in 3Q16. However, the primary reasons for the downturn were an aging lineup and an unintuitive user interface. Though both issues have been addressed with the latest generation watches, Apple's success will likely be muted as the smartwatch category continues to be challenged.


Lastly, is it fair to compare wearables without breaking them down into subcategories? I don't think a smartwatch is comparable to a fitness band, and even in the latter category, I don't think a fitness watch (Charge 2) is comparable to a pedometer (Flex). Anyways. Can the fitness watch control a Pandora station? Can the fitness watch pay for things? Can it show you stock prices or game scores? Can it show you a preview of the pic your phone is gonna take and snap that pic? Can it give you directions to your next destination?

That aside, is it fair to compare fitness watches to smartwatches? They're both wearable on the wrist. But the reason smartwatches were a threat to traditional watches is because smartwatches are meant to be worn out and about just like traditional watches, whereas people just don't wear their fitness watches all the time. I don't have a gym membership anymore so I don't know what people are wearing at the gym, but out and about on the street, I remember seeing only one fitness watch-a Fitbit Blaze-whereas everything else has either been a traditional watch, a traditional watch with a basic fitness tracker (like a Fitbit Flex, for that watch and smart bracelet look), or a smartwatch.

It's worth noting here that looking at the language IDC uses, it considers Fitbit a fitness brand, not a smartwatch brand. The Fitbit is a much better fitness watch than the one I bought over a decade ago for the same price, but it's still a fitness watch and not a smartwatch. It might have the potential to be a smartwatch brand, but it's not yet.


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## Buhma55c

You fail to realize that one... Ipod came at a time when digital music was just beginning to take off and the available mp3 players were pathetic. Two, iPhone came at a time when people were getting into smart phones and Blackberry and Windows Mobile were pathetic... Also iPhone sales cannibalized iPod sales.

iPhone was never the dominant smartphone compared to Android... Or like the iPod was in the digital music space. But it did sell more units in a shorter amount of time. Reaching 10 million in 6 months compared to 13 for iPod.

iPad was introduced and sold great... For a year or two but has now slowed to a crawl... But it did outpace the iPhone in unit sales reaching 10 million in 3 months.

Apple watch is a whole different story.... Smart watch sales as a whole is not big at all. 
And the king of that small piece of wearables pie? Fitness bands....

Apple has lost its way with Cook.

Case in point.... When Jobs came back from exile....
iPod....simpler, easier and more robust than the other mp3 players at the time.

iPhone...simpler, easier and more robust than the other smartphones at the time.

iPad....simpler, easier and more robust than the other tablets at the time. Yes... there were windows tablets around for years.

Now....Tim Cook is in charge....

So it looks like with each new product, Apple is becoming less and less successful....
iPod>iPhone>iPad>Awatch


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## Buhma55c

From this article....









It's possible that the smartphone has done irreparable damage to the good old watch. The Swiss watch industry is in freefall this year, and that's not because of the Apple Watch, as many predicted: That product is doing even worse. Market factors such as the strength of the franc and a decrease in European tourism are partly responsible, but, most likely, it's just that a watch is no longer a necessity, even for people who wear suits. It's normal to pull out a smartphone to find out the time.

To a growing number of people, the watch is a quaint accessory. And even though Apple's version (and Samsung's several versions) have all the activity-tracking functions of a Fitbit, many buyers see no point in all the extras - nice design, pretty strap and a bunch of apps. A smartphone doesn't do what a fitness band does - but it beats the smartwatch as a communication device and a portable computer.

Besides, many people buy wearable gadgets as gifts. That's where the price differential comes in. Call me cheap, but I'd rather buy a friend a $120 gift than a $350 one.

Even in this day and age, people sometimes still care about strict functionality and a low price. That resilient part of human nature will probably wreak havoc on hyped tech products in the near future. The so-called Internet of Everything is most likely to suffer: Smart faucets and light bulbs are not as functional to the average person as their makers and evangelists may think.


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## Buhma55c

Meanwhile....


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## scentedlead

Links please, or the article doesn’t exist.

(Because Photoshop makes anything possible. Or do you think people don’t want to read whole articles for themselves?)

And why do you need the Apple Watch to fail? Once I decide a watch isn’t for me, I just stop thinking about it. If a watch I don’t care for doesn’t do well, then whatev; if a watch I don’t care for does well, then whatev. I could hope they crash and burn, but why bother? It’s so much more fun to not think about them and have fun with the watches I do already have and look for other watches I do want.

Lastly, now that you’ve established that market share is going down, how about giving us the profit share? Swiss watches have only a few percentage points of the worldwide watch market, but they keep going on because they have around half the profit share. Or, in the past half decade, the iPhones marketshare of smartphones went down, but profit share heald steady, going to over 100% in some quarters, but mostly hovering at around 90% most of the time.

You need the larger context to see what the numbers are really doing.


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## Mot524

scentedlead said:


> Links please, or the article doesn't exist.
> 
> (Because Photoshop makes anything possible. Or do you think people don't want to read whole articles for themselves?)
> 
> And why do you need the Apple Watch to fail? Once I decide a watch isn't for me, I just stop thinking about it. If a watch I don't care for doesn't do well, then whatev; if a watch I don't care for does well, then whatev. I could hope they crash and burn, but why bother? It's so much more fun to not think about them and have fun with the watches I do already have and look for other watches I do want.
> 
> Lastly, now that you've established that market share is going down, how about giving us the profit share? Swiss watches have only a few percentage points of the worldwide watch market, but they keep going on because they have around half the profit share. Or, in the past half decade, the iPhones marketshare of smartphones went down, but profit share heald steady, going to over 100% in some quarters, but mostly hovering at around 90% most of the time.
> 
> You need the larger context to see what the numbers are really doing.


It's weird, a lot of people get really emotional about Apple. They think Apple sells overpriced, under-featured products to pretentious, ill-informed customers. A lot of people root for Apple to fail because of this.

It doesn't make a ton of sense. Apple might sell you a $650 phone that "only" has a BOM of $230 (doesn't include design, marketing, support, shipping, taxes, etc. of course) but BMW is happy to sell you a navigation system as a $2000 option on a new car and those things can't possibly cost them more than $200 to make. Yet nobody spends all their time on message boards rooting for BMW to fail...


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## miltsbrad

I thought the watch 2 would gain much better traction but lets wait and see.
If anyone will dominate the smartwatch its Apple!


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## bluefoam

miltsbrad said:


> I thought the watch 2 would gain much better traction but lets wait and see.
> If anyone will dominate the smartwatch its Apple!


Smartwatches have been around for a few years now... Apple haven't dominated so far... If anyone has it has been Fitbit... But I digress, I don't think anyone will dominate. Not until someone actually comes up with a viable product, with useful functions and independent operation


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## Buhma55c

Mot524 said:


> It's weird, a lot of people get really emotional about Apple. They think Apple sells overpriced, under-featured products to pretentious, ill-informed customers. A lot of people root for Apple to fail because of this.
> 
> It doesn't make a ton of sense. Apple might sell you a $650 phone that "only" has a BOM of $230 (doesn't include design, marketing, support, shipping, taxes, etc. of course) but BMW is happy to sell you a navigation system as a $2000 option on a new car and those things can't possibly cost them more than $200 to make. Yet nobody spends all their time on message boards rooting for BMW to fail...


I couldn't care less about Apple succeeding or not, I just put these articles up that come in my news feed to annoy Apple cultists... They are EVERYWHERE!

I'm on a Corvette board... Someone comes in talks about Apple app this and app that... We talking about our cars! Not phones!

I'm on a shooting forum... Did you know Apple app can help you shoot better? Blah blah blah.

I'm on a motorcycle forum... Yep some yahoo comes on talking about how great Apple watch is when riding.... But we all found it useless in direct sunlight and having to 'flip' it to even see the time.

I've had better conversations with those crazy Jehovah Witnesses that come a knocking.... At least I can slam the door when I don't care about what they are selling...

As for the link for the article... www.Google.com


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## scentedlead

Buhma55c said:


> I couldn't care less about Apple succeeding or not, I just put these articles up that come in my news feed to annoy Apple cultists... They are EVERYWHERE!
> 
> I'm on a Corvette board... Someone comes in talks about Apple app this and app that... We talking about our cars! Not phones!
> 
> I'm on a shooting forum... Did you know Apple app can help you shoot better? Blah blah blah.
> 
> I'm on a motorcycle forum... Yep some yahoo comes on talking about how great Apple watch is when riding.... But we all found it useless in direct sunlight and having to 'flip' it to even see the time.
> 
> I've had better conversations with those crazy Jehovah Witnesses that come a knocking.... At least I can slam the door when I don't care about what they are selling...
> 
> As for the link for the article... www.Google.com


okay then.


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## Buhma55c

First iPhone battery exploding issues, delayed airpods, emoji bar on the new Macbook Pros now WatchOS bricking Awatches. Way to go Timmy!

http://fortune.com/2016/12/14/apple-watch-watchos-update/

http://mashable.com/2016/12/17/apple-software-quality-slipping/#xJF_cM9T7gqK



















Hey.... did anyone brick their watches with the update? Sound off here ?


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## Raydius

Buhma55c said:


> I couldn't care less about Apple succeeding or not, I just put these articles up that come in my news feed to annoy Apple cultists... They are EVERYWHERE!
> 
> I'm on a Corvette board... Someone comes in talks about Apple app this and app that... We talking about our cars! Not phones!
> 
> I'm on a shooting forum... Did you know Apple app can help you shoot better? Blah blah blah.
> 
> I'm on a motorcycle forum... Yep some yahoo comes on talking about how great Apple watch is when riding.... But we all found it useless in direct sunlight and having to 'flip' it to even see the time.
> 
> I've had better conversations with those crazy Jehovah Witnesses that come a knocking.... At least I can slam the door when I don't care about what they are selling...
> 
> As for the link for the article... www.Google.com


As a tech director professionally, I have to keep up with all of the latest releases of all of the different brands, without any kind of bias.

That said, even though I personally use Android devices and Google apps, I find the negative anti-Apple sentiment is usually far louder and more annoying than Apple fans talking about something they like.

Sent from my SM-G935T using Tapatalk


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## Mot524

Buhma55c said:


> First iPhone battery exploding issues, delayed airpods, emoji bar on the new Macbook Pros now WatchOS bricking Awatches. Way to go Timmy!
> ...
> Hey.... did anyone brick their watches with the update? Sound off here 


Dunno about iPhone batteries exploding. It seems there have been four unconfirmed, unsubstantiated reports of iPhones either exploding or catching fire in the last year or so. Even if true, this seems like a very low rate for a device with a lithium ion battery that sells tens of millions of units per quarter. Who knows what these iPhones might have been subjected to--what kind of impacts, punctures, etc. Or even just high temperatures can cause structural damage inside of batteries, e.g., leaving your phone in the sunlight in your car on a hot day.

Apple probably has one of the best safety records in the last ~10 years re: batteries catching fire or exploding. I recall they had a lot of trouble with laptop batteries in the 90s but their record since then seems to be pretty spotless?


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## fungalicon

I've been an Apple customer and observer for more than 20 years and at times I've been outspoken, but in recent years I've been silently admiring the company's success. Objectively, Apple has been more closely followed, analyzed, critiqued, and written about more than any other technology company (or company) since its founding. And if you believe the narrative that's been spun, then Apple has been "beleaguered' and dying a slow death all while becoming the most successful consumer electronics company with the highest market cap on the planet. I'll be the first to admit that Apple has made mistakes - a ton of them, under Jobs and Cook - which the media loves to blow out of proportion to fit the narrative. Also, there is some sick human condition that wants to see successful things fail. Apple has changed the lives of many people for the better, so wouldn't it be more productive to offer constructive criticism so its products continue to improve?

Re: Apple Watch. All articles about smartwatch market share are fictitious and authors presenting data as fact are liars. I challenge anyone to show me accurate sales data from Apple or Samsung. Answer: you can't because neither company releases said sales data.


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## scentedlead

Even if companies don’t release the numbers of manufactured, shipped and sold, there are still ways to estimate them through leaks from suppliers, distributors, and vendors. Not as accurate as data from the company itself, but better analysts do discern between more credible vs. less credible sources. And we as readers and consumers should discern between better analysts and lesser analysts.


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## BarracksSi

"Analysts"...

Let me start a blog and write every day, and I can lay claim to the title of "analyst", too.


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## fungalicon

To be clear, analysts serve their (paying) clients. The content they produce isn't to be treated like that from news organizations and they aren't beholden to the same journalistic standards. It's irresponsible of news organizations to regurgitate analyst reports as fact, which then get reposted ad nauseam all over the Internet.

Apple's Q4 guidance suggests earnings will be flat or see single digit growth. It'll be interesting to see the actual results and how the analysts spin it.


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## Buhma55c

History is repeating itself. Remember...everyone said Microsoft was going to be on top.....until it wasn't

...everyone said Palm was going to rule the handheld market....until it died.

.....everyone said Blackberry will rule enterprise....until it went bankrupt.

....everyone said Android would die a quick death.....until it dominated the smartphone market

...everyone said Hillary was gonna win...until the little snowflakes started crying ?

point is...I'm just making a prediction that not only will Apple Watch fail...but if Apple continues going this course of airpods and iCars etc.etc....they are going to find themselves back where they were in 1997.

http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-is-losing-its-focus-again-steve-jobs-2016-12










The Apple Watch..The second-generation model, released in September, is hardly different from the original. It adds water-resistance and a GPS, but it's still a bulky piece of hardware with an ugly interface that's far from intuitive..My colleague Melia Robinson, who reviewed the Apple Watch Series 2,.said it had the "worst home screen of any Apple device I've ever owned."


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## Buhma55c

Looks like Apple watch has fallen to FOURTH PLACE!










Garmin,.the pioneering maker of GPS devices, has found a successful formula: focus on the dedicated outdoor enthusiast. While the.overall sales for wearables is slowing.- the category was up just 3% in the recent third-quarter, according to research firm IDC - Garmin managed to grow its wearable sales by 12%. It's now the No. 3 player in the space, ahead of.Apple..Fitbit.still holds a wide lead on everyone with China-based Xiaomi at No. 2.


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## Buhma55c

Uh oh.....top engineers are jumping ship from Apple.....
Doesn't look good for Apple in general and the watch in particular....so the Swiss watch industry was in trouble eh?

http://gizmodo.com/damn-apple-is-losing-a-lot-of-people-to-tesla-1791082532


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## Mot524

I guess I haven't been following this thread very closely but I can't figure out what your point is. Are you trying to make a point or are you just posting news that you see about the Apple Watch?


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## scentedlead

Mot524 said:


> I guess I haven't been following this thread very closely but I can't figure out what your point is. Are you trying to make a point or are you just posting news that you see about the Apple Watch?


His goals and motives are better when straight from the horse's mouth:



Buhma55c said:


> I couldn't care less about Apple succeeding or not, I just put these articles up that come in my news feed to annoy Apple cultists... They are EVERYWHERE!
> 
> I'm on a Corvette board... Someone comes in talks about Apple app this and app that... We talking about our cars! Not phones!
> 
> I'm on a shooting forum... Did you know Apple app can help you shoot better? Blah blah blah.
> 
> I'm on a motorcycle forum... Yep some yahoo comes on talking about how great Apple watch is when riding.... But we all found it useless in direct sunlight and having to 'flip' it to even see the time.
> 
> I've had better conversations with those crazy Jehovah Witnesses that come a knocking.... At least I can slam the door when I don't care about what they are selling...
> 
> As for the link for the article... www.Google.com


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## albertcaymuss

T1meout said:


> Recent market analysis shows Apple watche sales have plummeted by over 50% over the last quarter compared to last year's figures. With 47% of market shares, Apple is still the market leader, but there is obviously less interest in smart watches in general. So much for the predicted demise of regular watch manufacturers. We all know that watch conglomerates across the board have announced reduced sales over 2016, but apparently this can't be attributed to the recent introduction of smartwatches.


Can only speak from my own experience...

The Apple Watch was originally announced in April 2015 and was supposedly flying off the shelves, and sold a million units on Day 1 (https://qz.com/381791/apple-watch-p...its-first-day-a-shopping-data-firm-estimates/) and supposedly kept up brisk sales after that. And literally a year went by before I saw ANYONE wearing one (and I live in a metro area).

Now it's April 2017, and Apple Watch sales are supposedly tanking, and everyone and their frickin' brother seems to have one now.

IMHO there is lots of astroturf in the media when it comes to things like retail sales reports - sometimes you just have to go by your own observations.

That + I finally caved and picked up an AW2 earlier this year 

Al


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## yellowtrace

Watches are small, even large watches are small compared to our smartphone.

Smartphones had room for more development because screen estate kept increasing. We can now use smartphones for everyday computing (for general consumer needs).

Even if every part of the smartwatch become more sophisticated, limited screen estate restricts the use as an extension to your phone.

Given that restriction, I think other firms won't have too much problem catching up. In fact, cheap chinese smart watches are more thn enough for most consumers already.

Sent from my LG-D858HK using Tapatalk


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## Mot524

albertcaymuss said:


> Can only speak from my own experience...
> 
> The Apple Watch was originally announced in April 2015 and was supposedly flying off the shelves, and sold a million units on Day 1 (https://qz.com/381791/apple-watch-p...its-first-day-a-shopping-data-firm-estimates/) and supposedly kept up brisk sales after that. And literally a year went by before I saw ANYONE wearing one (and I live in a metro area).
> 
> Now it's April 2017, and Apple Watch sales are supposedly tanking, and everyone and their frickin' brother seems to have one now.
> ...


Interesting point. My experience is the same. I saw maybe 2-3 Apple watches in the wild during the first year. Now I know probably 6-7 people who wear one regularly.


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## BarracksSi

randomlogik said:


> Is anyone really surprised?


If you're going to bump a month-dormant topic relating to anything in technology, at least have a current reference.

https://www.engadget.com/2017/05/05/apple-watch-biggest-wearables-provider-q1-2017/


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## w4rmk

Apple needs a fresh design. I think that a round face would really boost their sales.


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## pr1uk

w4rmk said:


> Apple needs a fresh design. I think that a round face would really boost their sales.


They need a complete redesign round face, always on display and look more like a real watch not a plastic looking toy like the ones on sale now and a battery that will last at least 30 hours, the many they have left over can always be given away in breakfast cereal boxes just like the cheap plastic toys of years ago.

(Am I being too hard on Apple)


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## scentedlead

What left overs? Tim Cook’s expertise is manufacturing logistics and he is famous for keeping inventory excess down to a minimum. Just before Apple released new models last autumn, many models of the original AWs at many stores and online were sold out—including the $24k AW Edition in rose gold.

Round faces work fine when all you need are notifications that can be done with simple icons, but try reading a long text message (and long messages at minimal cost are the key appeals to using Apple Message) on a round screen. Once your text message is longer than a word or two, then what? Horizontal scrolling like the news ticker at the bottom of a chyron? Or wrapping the text to fit inside the round screen? But then how does that look as you scroll up or down? Does the app re-wrap with every scrolling movement, or not wrap the text but cut off the frame at the corners so that only the middle line completely shows? And then these design issues compound when you start dealing with email, even if all you have is one paragraph-long sentence. And then what about images? Whether in text messages, instant messenger, Instagram, Twitter, and etc, or using your watch as your phone camera’s viewfinder, most photos aren’t cropped round—they’re either square or rectangular. Rectangular and square faces are the most efficient way to display whole images with the least wasted space.

Round faces work well for a lot of people, but they also don’t work well for a lot of people.

And don’t get me started on how fake faux 3D looks. I love the Seiko Cocktail Time, but never have I thought, “I’d love a cheap imitation of this whose textures look odd because they don’t react to ambient lighting.”


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## BarracksSi

pr1uk said:


> They need a complete redesign round face, always on display and look more like a real watch not a plastic looking toy like the ones on sale now and a battery that will last at least 30 hours, *the many they have left over* can always be given away in breakfast cereal boxes just like the cheap plastic toys of years ago.
> 
> (Am I being too hard on Apple)


No. You are utterly baffling.


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## billdebmatt

but if you are reading a a long text message then 'you lost' when it comes to a smartwatch. a smart watch's function should be in and out for the non fitness. It shouldn't be more painful than just using your phone.


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## pr1uk

BarracksSi said:


> No. You are utterly baffling.


Sorry I never intended to be confusing the truth is I love Apple and own most of their other products just hate their attempt at making a smartwatch that tries to do so much yet falls down in so many ways


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## scentedlead

billdebmatt said:


> but if you are reading a a long text message then 'you lost' when it comes to a smartwatch. a smart watch's function should be in and out for the non fitness. It shouldn't be more painful than just using your phone.


But what is a long text message? In English, the average word has 4.5 characters and editors recommend keeping sentences at 15 - 20 words, which works out to around 100 characters per sentence, give or take a dozen or two dozen characters. For comparison, Twitter's max is 140 characters.

Also, on the AW, it's not a hassle to read a long sentence-whatever "long" means to you. I get the notification and get ~18 characters per line. Scrolling down to see the rest as easy as merely swiping down with a finger, or scrolling down with the crown. Dismissing the message is as easy as swiping down, starting from the top edge of the screen. It's all more convenient than pulling out my phone.

(And while I wouldn't want to write out long sentences with Scribble, responding with a word or two is very convenient.)

Also, smartwatch interfaces should be in and out for everything-including fitness. In the design process, Apple's engineers set a limit, 5 seconds, because it's cumbersome to hold you arm up longer than that.

https://www.wired.com/2015/04/the-apple-watch


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## tinmichael

I think, it is the fact that smart watches cannot be replaced normal watches (mechanical or quartz). One of the obvious reasons is that the basic purpose is different even though, both smart watch and normal watch are called watch. Definitely, those who buy smart watches want to do more things than just checking time, where else , the basic principle of buying a watch is just to check time and at the same time, try to broadcast the branding and design of one's own preference. For me, I am sure I won't buy any smart watch, no matter how popular they are because of the basic fact that I don't feel like wearing watch if I were imagine myself wearing smart watch. Truth is, phone is already more than enough for me to do what smart watch can do. Well, as everyone has his or her own opinion and preference, i'm just sharing my two cents thoughts... Cheers!


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## scentedlead

If 50% YOY growth is considered a sales plummet, then what would be a sales increase?


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