# Businessweek article: "Here Comes Apple's Watch. Should Watchmakers Be Worried?"



## david5182 (Jun 30, 2014)

Just read this in this week's issue. Thought WUSers might find it interesting/amusing.

Here Comes Apple's Watch. Should Watchmakers Be Worried? - Businessweek

An Apple Watch or similar will never replace my trusty Longines HydroConquest or at least not until I wouldn't have to charge the damn battery every 8 hours.


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## inhaus (Jul 30, 2014)

not the first thread like this and no. no one should be worried... at all.


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## StufflerMike (Mar 23, 2010)

All magazines and papers are perpetuating this stereotype.


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## watchloco (Feb 23, 2007)

That was good reading. Very interesting indeed. Could this lead to a smartphone renaissance sort of what the quartz watch revolution did almost obliterating the Swiss watch industry. Only time will tell.


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## BarracksSi (Feb 13, 2013)

The graphic accompanying the article is interesting enough:


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## shnjb (May 12, 2009)

BarracksSi said:


> The graphic accompanying the article is interesting enough:


yeah that was really intersesting stuff.

I actually think that the apple watch will hit even mechanical watches in the lower price tiers but by now, most Swiss watch and luxury conglomerates have a diversified portfolio of watch brands consisting of many price segments so I don't think it will hit any of them that much.


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## Wongsky (Jan 19, 2012)

I don't think there'll be much shift affecting people who would be mechanical watches - I think they're a different demographic.

In that somebody willing to spend a reasonable amount of money on a mechanical watch, tends to be looking for different things than somebody who'll be tempted either by the smart-watch genre, or Apple's offering(s). Some watch enthusiasts / collectors may want to add one to their collection / rotation, but I can't see a huge impact on those with rather more traditional interests / leanings.

That's not to say I think they'll fail, commercially, I've never underestimated consumers, at large, to be easily led.

The most likely demographic I perceive is those that are drawn to Apple products, and those that have largely, currently, abandoned wristwatches, or see them as currently trivial / menial things.


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## watchvaultnyc (Jun 5, 2014)

Wongsky said:


> The most likely demographic I perceive is those that are drawn to Apple products, and those that have largely, currently, abandoned wristwatches, or see them as currently trivial / menial things.


After 3 weeks with the Moto 360, this collector of nice mechanical watches believes you are probably wrong.

Yes, smartwatches only last for a year or two until it needs replacement, but the usefulness is such that many people (including myself) will be willing to relegate expensive mechanical watches to "special occasion" duty.

The closest analogy I can come to is with cars, as I am a car guy. Nice expensive mechanical watches are like a vintage 70's german 2-seat sports car - classic styling, says a lot about the owner's taste, very collectible and traded pre-owned. But by modern standards has poor power and fuel economy, unsafe, handles like a pig. Generally worse than your modern econobox.

Smartwatches are like modern cars - mostly without soul, but incredibly safe, good fuel economy, very comfortable, seats 5-7 and has all modern conveniences like satellite radio, satnav, memory seats, power everything and heated everything.

There is no doubt that I would want a vintage sports car to drive for special occasions or on a whim, but my daily driver, the one where I put 90% of my miles in, will always be a modern car. Why? because it is incredibly more convenient in my daily life.

My smartwatch is my fitness tracker, my map, my MP3 player, my assistant who reads my messages, who takes dictation, and reminds me to buy pork belly at the grocery. And yes, it's also my watch (one that I can change the look to match anything I wear in 4 clicks). If you have worn one for an extended period, you will know how easily you get used to the convenience of not having to pull a phone from your pocket to be able to do these things. So convenient, that it becomes very tempting to keep it on your wrist during the day rather than a nice piece of mechanical jewelry.


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## Wongsky (Jan 19, 2012)

broudie said:


> After 3 weeks with the Moto 360, this collector of nice mechanical watches believes you are probably wrong.


You believe I'm wrong over my comments on the _most likely demographic_ for smartwatches?

Is that really what you're disputing (since that's the comment of mine you selected to respond to)?


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## watchvaultnyc (Jun 5, 2014)

Wongsky said:


> You believe I'm wrong over my comments on the _most likely demographic_ for smartwatches?
> 
> Is that really what you're disputing (since that's the comment of mine you selected to respond to)?


Good point. I focused more on the negative of your thought, that people who do _not_ like nice watches are not the prime demographic for smartwatches.

However, I still believe that people who have "abandoned" watches are not the prime demographic. People who do not like regular watches on their wrists will not like smart watches on their wrist. Based on admittedly anecdotal evidence, many of the millennial generation think watches are "and old people's thing". I've even heard someone say they will not date "anyone who wears a watch".

The prime demographic, in my opinion, is the people who buy tool watches, fashion watches, and fitness trackers. Tool watch buyers because a smartwatch is a better tool than almost any other watch (except for when the tool watch must survive harsh conditions). Fashion watch buyers because the price is similar in the $200 range, the screen is customizable to fit your attire, and to a certain demographic, smartwatches are "cool". Fitness tracker buyers because you can get a smartwatch for $50 more and get most of the functions of a fitness tracker.


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## Wongsky (Jan 19, 2012)

broudie said:


> Good point. I focused more on the negative of your thought, that people who do _not_ like nice watches are not the prime demographic for smartwatches.
> 
> However, I still believe that people who have "abandoned" watches are not the prime demographic. People who do not like regular watches on their wrists will not like smart watches on their wrist. Based on admittedly anecdotal evidence, many of the millennial generation think watches are "and old people's thing". I've even heard someone say they will not date "anyone who wears a watch".
> 
> The prime demographic, in my opinion, is the people who buy tool watches, fashion watches, and fitness trackers. Tool watch buyers because a smartwatch is a better tool than almost any other watch (except for when the tool watch must survive harsh conditions). Fashion watch buyers because the price is similar in the $200 range, the screen is customizable to fit your attire, and to a certain demographic, smartwatches are "cool". Fitness tracker buyers because you can get a smartwatch for $50 more and get most of the functions of a fitness tracker.


There's a lot, there I'd agree with - and once more - some very cogent points added to the debate.

For myself, fitness tracking of various aspects is an interest - I've never yet found one killer product or device, though. Smartphone GPS tracking isn't bad - and was actually best on my previous generation smartphone (Nokia N8 running sports-tracker). I run the same app on my newer smartphone (BlackBerry Z10) but it's lost pedometer functionality, and isn't quite as reliable.

I have a fitbit, which I largely got because I was interested in sleep tracking (as I'm not great sleeper). But also devices that can track and model various activities and accurately parlay them into meaningful stats - well they're not really there, yet. Most are clever evolutions of pedometers, really. The Amiigo tracker looks interesting, but is really more trials / beta.

For people who really want GPS tracking - say cyclists, runners - then HRM is probably just as interesting - but then so is decent robustness and water resistance.

In a lot of cases, many use smartphones as they're largely considered "good enough" for much of these types of things ('cept maybe the physical movement tracking - difficult to integrate something larger for those purposes).

The pricing model is a challenge, too. Smartphones with heftier price tags are normally eased by contract tie-in terms partially, or fully funding the cost of the handset. Factor in another, semi-pricey gadget to augment it? Well maybe the bundles will come. But otherwise, if they're not keenly priced, it's a lot for a one-off purchase of something that's probably going to have limited shelf-life. That becomes more of a factor with the pricing of Apple's smart-watch.

The reason why I talk about those that have markedly, currently, abandoned watches, as being the natural demographic, isn't because of their susceptibility to the notion of returng to wearing a watch, per se - it's more about them likely being influenced by and enthusing about the tech, and the implications of it. I don't think they abandoned watches, largely, because they didn't want to actually wear a watch, per se - I think many abandoned watches because they didn't see the point when they were more likely to just get out their phone and check the time.

I know people have tried to draw parallels from normal mobile phones to smartphones, but then there were other things at play. Tech converged on the smartphone - cameras, internet usage, social networking, non-voice / text-based comms, sat nav, media / music / video. That's happened now, and did have to tweak the format a little (eg screen size and performance has been a notable factor). But this aspect (screen size and performance) is a notable reason why smartwatches aren't likely to pick up the baton from smartphones, and become convergent devices in their own right - well that, and their dependencies.

So over-hype and the Emperor's new clothes may manage to steal some sway in the market, but they won't prevail on hype - that will have to become good-enough, to get people already invested / interested in other devices, to abandon them in favour of them.

That said, I'll probably splurge on one at some point, just really to have a play and see what it really offers me. Problem is, as things stand, I like my watches analog, solar, and atomic clock syncing - for the real, always accurate, always charged, just pick one up off the dresser, and it'll be good to go, experience. I also like a bit of downtime away from my phone(s) too. There's plenty of times I'll just not want to interact with them for a few hours, nor be interrupted. But then on the flipside, there are quite a few instances of me missing messages / calls, because I'm in a noisy environment and either haven't heard or detected my smartphone when it's rung / alerted.


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## BarracksSi (Feb 13, 2013)

(I posted this before, but maybe in a different thread)

My wife wants one. She likes how they look, but it was the activity logging -- and the sheer variety of parameters that it tracks -- that really caught her attention.

She doesn't wear a watch. The last time she did, it was for a final exam, and she wore her mom's old Rolex (because it was the only watch of hers that worked  ). 

She asked about the Garmin 410 that I've been using (that she bought for me for my birthday, in fact) and if it would help her stay in shape. She didn't sound happy about having to use a chest strap, and she wants something easier to use. The Garmin's UI is, frankly, terrible, and if it already bugs me enough that I hardly wear it, it'll never stand a chance with her.

Like most women, she also carries her phone in her purse. An Apple Watch will let her keep it there and not miss anything important. Add that it seems easy to use, then add the activity tracking, and it looks like a winner for her.

Remember this, too: Apple sold nearly 40 million iPhones last quarter. That's only since July, and only a week or two's worth of the iPhone 6 launch. The Apple Watch works with the iPhone 5 and newer, not just the 6 -- and there are a LOT of them out there already. If just one or two percent of compatible iPhone owners get a Watch, that's several million right off the bat. If that increases to one out of every twenty, or one out of ten, ... you can see how this will end up.


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## superflask (Feb 25, 2012)

Hi all, I just stumbled upon this thread after writing up my thoughts on this exact topic.

Watching the Wearables | Empty Vessel

I don't think we know how the market will go in the next few years, but I wouldn't underestimate the ability of the masses to change the way watches are used. In its heyday, CDs were the bomb and we never imagined that just a simple program like an MP3 ripper (remember the good old days of WinAmp?) and Napster would completely render CDs obsolete to anyone with an Internet connection.


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## dashunde (Jul 16, 2011)

I think your both right, but...



> The most likely demographic I perceive is those that are drawn to Apple products, and those that have largely, currently, abandoned wristwatches, or see them as currently trivial / menial things.


I tend to agree with this... very often, particularly with the younger folk, I see no watch on their wrist and they check their phones for time.
My idiot 30 year old younger brother has six watches, all with dead batteries that he would wear as fashion items. 
Guess what he used to tell time? Yep, Samsung... and he is always late.



> The closest analogy I can come to is with cars, as I am a car guy. Nice expensive mechanical watches are like a vintage 70's german 2-seat sports car - classic styling, says a lot about the owner's taste, very collectible and traded pre-owned. But by modern standards has poor power and fuel economy, unsafe, handles like a pig. Generally worse than your modern econobox.


Its a big stretch to compare a nice automatic watch to a troublesome rattletrap from the 70's.



> There is no doubt that I would want a vintage sports car to drive for special occasions or on a whim, but my daily driver, the one where I put 90% of my miles in, will always be a modern car. Why? because it is incredibly more convenient in my daily life.


The only thing "convenient" about a smart watch is the connection to the phone... but its really just a trade off... spend hours updating, charging, messing around with, learning and fussing with the smart watch, or just reach for your phone multiple times per day. 
In other words, take your pick... mess with the watch intensely until its sorted out then start over after updates, and you _still_ have to_ use_ the watch regularly, or just whip out your phone routinely throughout the day.

For me? A "smart" watch has a quality movement, sapphire crystal, steel case and bracelet and water resistance well beyond what my ears will tolerate, and needs no attention or servicing for 10 years.
I'll pass on having one more piece of disposable junk that requires updates, disobeys commands, requires the fingers of a 2yr old to operate, hates my phone, has a screen that is easily smashed and its final trick.. has an eternally dead battery.


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## dashunde (Jul 16, 2011)

ah Napster... the good ol days!


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## Badbebe (Jul 30, 2011)

broudie said:


> The closest analogy I can come to is with cars, as I am a car guy. Nice expensive mechanical watches are like a vintage 70's german 2-seat sports car - classic styling, says a lot about the owner's taste, very collectible and traded pre-owned. But by modern standards has poor power and fuel economy, unsafe, handles like a pig. Generally worse than your modern econobox.


This is a poor comparison. A car offers people way more utility than a watch ever will. Having a car enables me to travel great distances at speed unimaginable without it. What can a watch possibly bring me that's on the same scale as a car did.. on that tinny screen? Will it walk my dog or teleport me to work? Smartwatches are just that, a smarter watch but still just a watch.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## jsolares (Dec 30, 2014)

hbueain said:


> This is a poor comparison. A car offers people way more utility than a watch ever will. Having a car enables me to travel great distances at speed unimaginable without it. What can a watch possibly bring me that's on the same scale as a car did.. on that tinny screen? Will it walk my dog or teleport me to work? Smartwatches are just that, a smarter watch but still just a watch.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


There's a difference between analogy and comparison, as an analogy it's not that bad, the mechanical watch is the one you want to use in special occasions, the smart watch for your every day life, with cars the 70's 2 seat car, ferrari is the one you want to use in special occasions and the lexus/accord/etc sedan for every day life.

I think it's just too early to tell, seems like everyone including current smart watch makers are waiting for the apple watch to drop and see what it's capable of.


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## Wongsky (Jan 19, 2012)

jsolares said:


> There's a difference between analogy and comparison, as an analogy it's not that bad, the mechanical watch is the one you want to use in special occasions, the smart watch for your every day life, with cars the 70's 2 seat car, ferrari is the one you want to use in special occasions and the lexus/accord/etc sedan for every day life.
> 
> I think it's just too early to tell, seems like everyone including current smart watch makers are waiting for the apple watch to drop and see what it's capable of.


Maybe that's what some are waiting for.

For me wearable tech has it's place - but I'm not convinced that Apple are breaking the boundaries - although I suspect they are making others' raise their games.

For me, though, the Microsoft Band, Jawbone Up3, and to a slightly lesser degree Fitbit Surge are much more interesting. I don't want vendor / smartphone lock-in. And actually, I'm more sold on the wearable tech that's actually not aiming to be a watch (as ideally, I'd still like to remain able to wear my own choice of wristwatch) - so, that's Microsoft Band and Jawbone Up3. Microsoft Band seems to include standalone GPS tracking, above the Up3, but then that seems to impact battery life.

For me, it'll probably be one of those two, unless another vendor steps in with something very similar and competitive.


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## BarracksSi (Feb 13, 2013)

Keep an eye open for articles about all the smartwatches that appeared at CES this year. Looks like there will be something for everybody.


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## black watch (Aug 3, 2013)

I read the Business week article "Here comes Apple's watch, should watchmakers be worried". 
After reading the last paragraph about the Apple 1 computer that sold for $671,400, I couldn't help but ponder for a few seconds, 
how many people reading this might go out and buy an Apple watch thinking it could pad their retirement fund someday.


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